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Will COVID 4th Wave Hit India? Eminent Virologist Says Probability Low

COVID 4th Wave Latest Update: Dr T Jacob John said there is no scientific, epidemiological, virological reason to predict a fourth Covid wave, but nobody can predict that it will not happen in India.
As the coronavirus cases in the country have gone down significantly, eminent virologist and former professor, CMC Vellore Dr T Jacob John on Saturday said there is no scientific, epidemiological, virological reason to predict a fourth Covid wave, but nobody can predict that it will not happen.
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Talking to news agency ANI, Dr John said there is a need to keep looking at the viruses and their genetic sequences and see if there are any new variants appearing and if any variants are overtaking Omicron locally in more places.
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He also stated that he doesn’t believe in predicting waves based on mathematical modelling.“I do not understand how fear needs to be inculcated in human beings and for what purposes.
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So I don’t believe in predicting a wave based on mathematical modelling. I told you about the problems of mathematical modelling that computers had with type two polio vaccines.
Mathematical modelling is good if all the elements that go into the mathematical modelling are good. So, there is no need to be fearful of the wave.”
Giving further details, he added that had he been asked the question in 2020 on whether the virus behaves differently, then he would have replied in the negative.

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However, he said that now in the year 2022, there is a lot of information about this virus, on how it behaves and how variants are created, and so on. “There is enough information to be confident about predicting the future, he stated.
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“People don’t understand one thing Omicron was totally unpredictable. It is not from Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Kappa, Omicron has an unknown pathway of location.
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I’m saying this because if a similar unknown pathway or mutation resulted in a variant will that be more transmissible?,” he said.
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Talking about the COVID spike in China, he said India doesn’t need to worry about what’s happening there because the contexts are extremely different.
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