After the 2019 Maharashtra Meeting election, a senior Shiv Sena chief tweeted a picture of a tiger, with a clock round its neck, sniffing a lotus. It was maybe the Sena’s approach of placing its pre-poll alliance partner-turned-foe, the BJP, as an alternative. The tiger symbolises the Sena, the clock and the lotus are election symbols of the NCP and the BJP, respectively.

The picture didn’t comprise any reference to the Congress, but it surely was quickly to be the Sena’s second unnatural ally as its chief, Uddhav Thackeray, pursued his dream of changing into Maharashtra’s chief minister by stopping to play second fiddle to the BJP, even at the price of making “ideological compromises” and disregarding standard sentiments that had been in favour of a saffron (Hindutva) authorities.

Three years is a very long time in politics. On Wednesday, insurgent Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde, with a bunch of get together MLAs, moved from Gujarat to Assam, from one BJP-ruled state to a different, because the Maharashtra authorities continued to battle for survival.

The Sena-led coalition, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), additionally comprising the NCP and the Congress, is placing up a courageous entrance by claiming the rebels will return, however that will not be the query. The query is whether or not Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray will be capable of save his Shiv Sena. The query is: As Sena and Sainiks (get together members) battle, will the Tiger survive one among its greatest challenges, with lotus footprints throughout them?

RULES AND NUMBERS

That is the place guidelines and numbers come into play.

The anti-defection legislation disqualifies particular person MPs or MLAs in the event that they go away one political get together for an additional. Nonetheless, this legislation doesn’t apply when two-thirds of MPs or MLAs from one political get together merge with one other. There isn’t any punishment for the get together that encourages or accepts defecting legislators.

ALSO READ | Shinde previous Shiv Sainik; he cannot go away Sena and we will not go away him: Sanjay Raut

Briefly, defections are legitimate solely when absolutely the majority of a celebration’s legislators desire a break up. Parliament introduced the legislation in 1985 to defend governments from pointless instability triggered by defections.

So, Shinde, who has dropped “Shiv Sena” from his Twitter bio, will want the assist of 37 MLAs to flee disqualification from the Legislative Meeting. And what number of does he have? From being the Sena chief whip, who ensured MLAs voted within the Legislative Meeting because the management wished, to being a person who modified the sport in Maharashtra’s politics, Shinde has claimed the assist of 40 of the 55 Sena MLAs and 6 Independents.

ALSO READ | From Mumbai to Surat to Assam: The nail-biting political thriller of Maharashtra | EXPLAINED

Shinde has stated he and the opposite insurgent MLAs will carry Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray’s ‘Hindutva’ ideology ahead. That is attainable solely after they go together with the BJP and stop a coalition that additionally has the Congress, and its breakaway faction, the NCP, that the Sena founder fought tooth and nail.

Uddhav Thackeray has housed the remainder of the MLAs in Mumbai lodges and requested Shinde to return however the insurgent chief has stated it’s attainable solely when the Sena restores its alliance with the BJP. The rebels have stated they don’t have any problem with the Sena management however objected to the model of functioning of the NCP and the Congress.

The Congress has despatched its chief Kamal Nath, who himself misplaced his authorities in Madhya Pradesh to the BJP, to Mumbai to handle the disaster that was triggered by the BJP doing higher within the latest MLA election than its numbers advised, apparently attributable to cross-voting by some Sena members, resulting in Uddhav Thackeray scolding Shinde who was already feeling slighted within the get together. After the Rajya Sabha polls, this was the second such humiliation and betrayal for the Sena.

Sena mouthpiece “Saamana” has known as Shinde a traitor and stated the BJP’s ploy to deliver down the federal government won’t succeed. Although Gujarat was additionally a BJP-ruled state, it’s not too removed from Maharashtra. In that sense, Assam permits better scope for arduous bargaining and political realignments.

WHAT NEXT

However efforts to type a brand new ruling coalition will rely on the numbers within the Maharashtra Legislative Meeting. Let’s see how they stack up.

Complete 287
Majority mark 144
BJP 106
Sena 55
NCP 53
Congress 44
Relaxation others

So, if the insurgent Sena group, together with some Independents and others, goes with the BJP, the present authorities will fall. The brand new grouping might have the bulk to type the following authorities. Maharashtra BJP chief Chandrakant Patil has stated that his get together will certainly take into account a proposal to type another authorities if it comes from Shinde.

ALSO READ | Sena chief Sanjay Raut hints at dissolving Maharashtra Meeting

However we don’t know the precise variety of MLAs with Shinde, a mass chief from Thane and a strong minister within the Thackeray authorities. Shinde must give signed letters of assist for the Governor to contemplate.

Be that as it might, defections are new to the Sena. In 1990, Chhagan Bhujbal switched to the Congress. In 2005, Narayan Rane left the Sena to hitch the Congress. He later joined the BJP. Raj Thackeray additionally left the Sena in 2005 to type his personal get together, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).

Suppose one other defection occurs of the proportion that is being talked about. In that case, the earlier Maharashtra chief minister, Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP, who briefly turned the CM with assist from an NCP faction after the 2019 Meeting election however needed to stop inside days, can have had his candy revenge.

And Maharashtra’s politics, together with the bigger thought of anti-BJP mahagathbandhans with out a sturdy and cohesive political ideology, might change.

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